Personnel of the institutions responsible for monitoring India’s external environment and ensuing the security of the country and its citizens, probably know more about the composition and character of the Taliban than they are letting out. They would do us all a favour if they were to loosen up a little since we need a vigorous national debate to reorient ourselves after the strategic situation was convulsed savagely over the past fortnight.
Some pointers
The foremost question in the minds of those thinking about Afghanistan is whether there is a Taliban 2.0. Is this avatar that stormed into Kabul on August 15 after capturing most of the country’s 34 provinces in a whirlwind campaign, any different from the barbaric entity that ruled the Afghans between 1996 and 2001. Currently, the answer to that question is up in the air since reports seem to support neither conclusion. We will perhaps truly know only if and when this dispensation consolidates its power. Meanwhile, we can consider some pointers.
Between 1996 and 2001, when they were in power previously, the Taliban did almost nothing to improve conditions in what had by then become a devastated, impoverished country. All that the mullahs seemed to be interested in was oppressing women and minorities and providing sanctuary for jihadi terrorists from every part of the world. That crazed enterprise came to an end after the Arab guests over-played their hand, massacred civilians in the United States on September 11, 2001 and invited retaliation that drove the Talibs back to their old sanctuaries in Pakistan. Their return to power has raised the strong possibility that Afghanistan will revert to primordial mode. Apart from the memory of the consequences of 9/11, are there other factors that could inhibit the Taliban from reverting to their old ways?
The departure and after
No indication of a change in character of the movement or acceptability to the people is provided by the rapid disintegration of the previous government’s defence apparatus. The melting away of an army raised, trained, equipped and paid by the U.S. that was tasked with the mission of propping up the democratic order has occasioned much surprise. In retrospect, perhaps the only surprising element is that the event caused so much surprise.
Amidst the current bewilderment at the ease with which the Taliban advanced, it is easy to forget that much the same pattern unfolded on the first occasion. The Taliban built up their presence and hence their strength steadily from pocket to pocket before moving towards a frenzied denouement. There seems to be a characteristic of Afghan warfare that combat is carried out for so long as it is feasible and given up as soon as it is not.
This was an army raised to defend nebulous concepts such as nation, democracy, citizens’ rights, etc. from amongst a populace that has no experience in the operationalisation of these ideals. Traditionally, the Afghan has fought for his tribe, his clan or his family except when inspired by a few mighty war leaders down the ages. The men who joined the U.S.-created army must have done so overwhelmingly because the superpower was paying their salaries and feeding them.
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